Political Science 502 Todd Donovan Research Techniques in Political Science Winter 1994 AH 424/x3018 Office hours: Fri. 10-12 Tu 10-12 This course is intended to provide graduate students with training in a few of the methods and tools used by social scientists. The course surveys issues of research design and data analysis. While part of the emphasis here is on the use and interpretation of basic quantitative data, this is not a statistics course. Rather, we will survey literature that employs particular analytical techniques in order to develop a basic "statistical literacy." In addition, you will be given assignments that provide "hands on" exposure to common social science computer applications. With this combination, you should have a sense of how a research project is carried out from start to finish. The primary goals of this class are to give you: 1) some of the tools to conduct your own research projects (thesis or professional work) and 2) the skills needed to read quantitative social science literature. For those students considering writing a thesis, this course might serve as an introduction to some basic concepts that can be used to structure your research. It must be emphasized that this course emphasizes a rather narrow range of research techniques. Our focus here is, for the most part, on quantitative analysis. This is by no means the only approach to the study of politics, nor is it the most appropriate. One of your tasks in classroom meetings is to provide a critical evaluation of the application of quantitative methods to the study of politics. TEXTS You are encouraged to purchase the following texts: Nachmias, C and D. Nachmias, Research Methods in the Social Sciences. (4th Edition) St. Martin's, 1992. The Political Research Experience: Readings and Analysis. ME Sharpe, 1990 Schroeder, L, et al. Understanding Regression Analysis: An Introductory Guide. Sage. I recommended that you acquire an introductory guide to SPSS (mainframe). Suggestions are: Norusis, Marija. The SPSS Guide to Data Analysis. SPSS Inc. Norusis, Marija. SPSS: Introductory Statistics Guide. SPSS Inc. Other article readings will be assigned during the term. A course reader can be made available for purchase at an off campus site (Copy Source, 1122 N State Street) if students agree to such a purchase. GRADING Course grades will be based on the following: Final Exam: 20% Term Project/Paper: 50% Assignments: 15% Participation: 15% No make-up exams will be given without documentable excuse. No assignments will be accepted after the last course meeting. TERM PROJECT You have two options for your term project. Research Paper: The term paper option will consist of an original research project of your own choice and design. You will select a research question, collect data, analyze data, and draw conclusions based upon your analysis. You are encouraged to pursue topics outside the scope of the examples used in class. This paper should be fifteen pages (excluding tables). Data sources and techniques for data analysis will be discussed in class. Class assignments will be centered upon the analysis of national surveys of public opinion. You might choose to use these data as the source for your own original research project. Research Design/Prospectus: Students considering writing a thesis are encouraged to develop a working design for future research. This paper will include: a concise presentation of the research issue/topic, a brief review of the relevant literature, a discussion of the methods that will be used to address the issue, sources (location) of data that might be utilized, and a discussion of the potential problems associated with the research techniques you might employ. The paper should be no more than twenty-two pages in length (excluding bibliography). Both options require that you begin work early in the quarter. Please clear your topic with me no later than the third week. COURSE OUTLINE I. Organization and Introduction (1/4) II. A "Scientific" Approach to Political Phenomena (1/6) Text: Nachmias, Chapter 1-2 : Ethridge, Chapter 1 (Introduction) and Chapter 15 Reader: *Johnson, J and R. Joslyn (1991) Studying Politics Scientifically (Ch. 2 Political Science. Research Methods) *Babbie, E. The Practice of Social Research. Chapter 2. (1983, 5th ed) pp. 29-56. *Kiel, L.D. (1991) "Non-linear Systems and Social Research." Social Science Quarterly. October. *Rosenberg, A. (1985) The Structure of Biological Science. Chapter 1, "Biology and Its Philosophy" *Kuhn, T. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. (2nd ed.) Chapter 4, "Normal Science as Puzzle-solving" III. Research Design: Levels, Time, and Causality (1/11) Texts: Nachmias, Chapters 5 & 6; Ethridge, Chapter 2 Reader: *Babbie, E. The Practice of Social Research. Chapter 3. (1975, 1st ed) pp. 49-76. *Shively, W. (1980) The Craft of Political Research. Chapter 6, "Causal Thinking and the Design of Research" *Singer, J.D. (1961) "The Levels-of-Analysis Problem" World Politics. Vol 14. (October). *Allison, G. (1969) "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis." APSR 58: 689-718. (September) *Asher, H. (1983) Causal Modeling. (Intro) Sage. *Miller, W. and D. Stokes (1963) "Constituency Influence in Congress." APSR (March) 45-57. IV. Research Design: Units, Variables and Fallacies (1/13) Text: Nachmias Chapter 3; : (an applied example): *Robinson, W. (1950) "Ecological Correlation and the Behavior of Individuals." ASR: 15: 351-57. *Tiebout, C. (1956) "A Pure Theory of Municipal Expenditure." J. of Political Economy. *Schneider, M. (1986) "Fragmentation and the Growth of Local Government. Public Choice. 48:255-64. *Lowery, D. & W. Lyons (1989) "The Impact of Jurisdictional Boundaries: An Individual-level Test." JOP 51:73-97. *Teske, et. al. (1993) "Establishing the MicroFoundations of a Macro-level Theory." APSR, 87:702-13. *Percy and Hawkins (1992). "Further Tests of Individual-level Propositions from the Tiebout Model." JOP. 54:1149 V. Measurement Issues (1/18) Text: Nachmias, Chapters 7; Ethridge, Chapter 3 Reader: *Carmines, E and R. Zeller (1979) Reliability and Validity Assessment. Sage. Chapters 1 & 2. *Elazar, D. (1984) American Federalism: A View from the States. Chapter 5, "The States and the Political Setting." *Baker, J. (1990) "Exploring the Missing Link: Political Culture as an Explanation..." WPQ 43: 597-609. class will not meet on 1/20 VI. Survey Research and Public Opinion (1/25) Texts: Nachmias, Chapter 10 & 11; Ethridge, Chapter 6: (108- 126). Reader: *Lippmann, W. (1922) Public Opinion. Chapter 1, "The Limits of Public Opinion." *Hitchens, C. (1992) "Voting in the Passive Voice." Harpers (April) *Johnston, R. et. al. (1991). Letting the People Decide. (manuscript). Herbst, S. (1993). "Numbers and Symbolic Politics" from Numbered Voices (Chapter 2). Univ of Chicago Press. VII. Hypothesis Testing: sampling, probability and inference (1/27) Texts: Nachmias, Chapter 8 & 19; Ethridge Chapter 5 Reader: *C. Mock and H. Weisberg (1992) "Political Inumeracy: Encounters with Coincidence, Improbability and Chance." AJPS 36:1023-46 *L. Mohr (1990) Understanding Significance Testing. Sage. (Intro) *Sniederman, et al (1991) "The New Racism." AJPS 35:423- 47. Lab session I (2/1) VIII. Bivariate Regression: review (2/3) Texts: Ethridge, Chapter 13 : Schroeder, et al: all. Lab session II (2/8) IX. Multiple Regression Analysis: Fit (2/10) Text: Nachmias, Chapter 17 (control, causation, and pitfalls of path analysis). Reader: *Skalaban, A. and M. Lewis-Beck (1990) "The R2: Some Straight Talk." Political Analysis. (mimeo) *Howell, S. and J. Vanderleeuw (1990) "Economic Effects on State Governors." APQ. 18:158-68. *Chapman, R and K Palda (1989)"Econometric Models of Voting and Campaigning" X. Multiple Regression Analysis (2/15) TBA Lab session III (2/17) XI. Multivariate Analysis/ Factor Analysis: "Data Reduction" (2/22) Text: Nachmias p. 442-444 Reader: *Kim, J. and C Muller (1978) Introduction to Factor Analysis. Sage (intro). *Knoke, D. (1988) "Incentives in Collective Action Organizations." ASR 53:311-29. *Logan, J.(1976) "Industrialization and the Stratification of Cities in Suburban Regions." American Journal of Sociology. 82:333-47 Lab session IV (2/24) XII. Dichotomous Regression :Logit and Probit (3/1) *Kennedy, P. (1987) "Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variables." A Guide to Econometrics, p. 189-99. *Kessel, J (1992) "Probit Analysis." Appendix to Presidential Campaign Politics p. 301-303. *Lanoue, D. (1991) "Debates that Mattered." Canadian Journal of Political Science." XXIV:1 Ostrom, C and B. Lob (1986) "The President and the Political Use of Force" APSR 80:541-566. Lab session (3/3) XIII. Review Re-read Chapter 15 from Ethridge (3/8) Final Scheduled for Friday, March 16; 8:00-10:00 am. This date may change. (Note: this is NOT the regularly scheduled final hour) Journal abbreviations: AJPS: American Journal of Political Science POQ: Public Opinion Quarterly ASR: American Sociological Review APQ: American Politics Quarterly WPQ: Western Political Quarterly APSR: American Political Science Review