Political Science 541/446 Donovan Wed., 2:30-5:00 p.m. AH 421 Office AH 424 Hours: TBA Seminar in Voting Behavior and Public Opinion This course will provide students with an overview of some of the major empirical research conducted in the area of voting behavior and public opinion. The substantive studies evaluated here are primarily drawn from the American context, however western European studies, and cross-national studies are also examined. The course begins with an examination of one of the more stable, long-term predictors of voting and opinions: partisanship. We then focus on additional, short- term factors influencing behavior. It should be stressed that this is a seminar, not a lecture course. Discussion questions/topics are presented prior to each session. Each meeting will focus on readings assigned to all students, as well as articles assigned specifically to individual student. Students are responsible for presenting and discussing assigned readings, and are expected to come to class prepared to discuss reading material assigned to other students. The reading material will come from three sources; a text book, a published reader, and several photo-copied articles. The following books are available in the campus bookstore: Flanigan, William and Nancy Zingale. 1991. Political Behavior of the American Electorate. (7th edition). Washington, D.C. Congressional Quarterly Press. Neimi, Richard and Herbert Weisberg. 1993. Controversies in Voting Behavior. (3rd Edition). Washington, D.C. Congressional Quarterly Press. The following book is being ordered and will be available in the bookstore: Ansolabehre, et al. 1993. The Media Game: American Politics in the Television Age. Macmillan Grading: The completion of a term writing project and the student's contribution to course discussions will be considered in calculating individual grades. There are two options for satisfying the writing requirement. The first involves weekly papers, the second involves completing a term research paper. These will be discussed at the first class meeting. Students enrolled under the "writing intensive" designation are encouraged to write papers that can be presented at the undergraduate research conference in the spring. There are no exams. Week One: 9/28. Introduction and Organization Week Two: 10/6. Normative and Empirical Issues in Political Behavior. Discussion Topic(s): What is required of individuals for democracies to function? (or, Why bother studying voting behavior?) Read: Berelson, Bernard.; et. al. (1954). Chapter 14, "Democratic Practice and Democratic Theory." from Voting. Univ. of Chicago Press. Campbell, et. al. (1960) Chapter 2, "Theoretical Orientation." The American Voter. University of Illinois Press. Edelman, Murray. (1967). Chapter 1, "Introduction." The Symbolic Uses of Politics. University of Illinois Press. Page, Benjamin and Robert Shapiro. (1983) "Effects of Public Opinion on Policy." APSR. 77:175-90. Neimi & Weisberg. Chapter 1, "An Introduction to Voting Behavior." Week Three: 10/13. Participation. Discussion Topic(s): Who Votes? How can we explain levels of turnout in elections? What factors affect turnout? What might occur if turnout increased in the US? What "non- voting" forms of participation need to be considered? Read: Flanigan and Zingale, Chapter 1, "Suffrage and Turnout." Niemi and Weisberg, Section I, Election Turnout (p.14- 85). This section includes articles by: Teixeira; Turnout decline Bobo and Gilliam; Race Powell; Comparative perspective Rosenstone and Hansen (1993) "The Political Logic of Political Participation." and "Solving the Puzzle of Participation." from, Mobilization, Participation and American Democracy. Macmillan. Rosenstone (1982) "Economic Adversity and Voter Turnout." AJPS 26:25-46. Rosenstone and Wolfinger. (1978) "The Effect of Registration Laws on Turnout." APSR. 72:22-45 Week Four: 10/20. Partisanship and Behavior: Discussion Topic: How does individual-level partisanship act as a long-term determinant of political behavior? How might this affect change in the political system? Read: Neimi and Weisberg, Section V. (pp. 268-320). This section includes articles by: MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson; Macropartisanship Neimi and Jennings; Youth socialization Flanigan and Zingale, Chapter 2 "Partisanship" and, Chapter 3 "Partisans and Partisan Change." Chapter 8 "Political Culture & Socialization" Jennings and Markus, (1984) "Partisan Orientations over the Long Haul." APSR. 78:1000-1018 Franklin and Jackson. (1983) "The Dynamics of Party Identification." APSR. 77:957-73. LeDuc, L. (1981). "The Dynamic Properties of Party Identification" BJPS. 9:257-68. Converse, (1969) "Of Time and Partisan Stability" Comparative Political Studies. 2:139-71. Week Five: 10/27. Three Perspectives on Decisions. Discussion Topic: Do voters make informed choices? Do they evaluate issues when making choices? Are most voters fools? Do most voters simply vote their party ID? (what if everyone did?) Read: Harrop and Miller (1987) Chapter 6 "Psychological, Economic and Sociological Models of Voting (pp. 130-172). Flanigan and Zingale. Chapter 6, Vote Choice and Decisions Neimi and Weisberg, Section III. Vote Determinants. (pp 137-152) Converse. (1962) "Information Flow and The Stability of Partisan Attitudes." Public Opinion Quarterly. Carmines and Stimson (1980) "The Two Faces of Issue Voting." APSR 74:78-91. Keiweit and Rivers (1984) "A Retrospective on Retrospective Voting" Political Behavior 369-91. Week Six: 11/3. Sophistication and Ideology Discussion Topic: Can we measure ideology and sophistication in mass electorates? What are the consequences of having an electorate that lacks substantial levels of sophistication and ideology? Read; Neimi and Weisberg. Section II, Political Sophistication. (p.86-136) This section includes articles by; Smith, Luskin, Flanigan and Zingale, Chapter 5 "Public Opinion and Ideology" Converse, (1964) "The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics." In Ideology and Discontent, D. Apter (ed.) New York: Free Press. Jervis, R (1993) "The Drunkard's Search." In Explorations in Political Psychology. Durham: Duke Univ. Press. Sniederman, et al (1991) Introduction to Reasoning and Choice. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press. Week Seven: 11/10. Economics, Voting and Opinions. Discussion Topic: Is economic voting "sophisticated" or "ideological" voting? (Or, does economic voting reflect and attentive electorate? The Clinton campaign stressed that "it's the economy, stupid!" What about the economy do voters focus on? Do all voters share the same economic concerns? Is there a political business cycle? Read; Weatherford (1983) "Economic Voting and the Symbolic Politics Argument: A Reinterpretation and a Synthesis." APSR. 77:158-47. Hibbs (1987) "Public Concern about Inflation and Unemployment" Chapter 4 in The American Political Economy. Alt and Chrystal (1983) "Political Business Cycles." Chapter 5 in Political Economics. Kinder and Keiwiet (1981) Sociotropic Politics- The American Case. BJPS 11: 129-61. Monroe (1983) "Political manipulation of the Economy: A Closer Look" Pres. Studies Q. 12:37- Markus (1988) "The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote." In Neimi and Weiseberg. Tufte (1978) "Economic and Political Determinants of Electoral Outcomes" Chapter 5 in Political Control of the Economy." Week Eight: 11/17. Assessing Media and Campaign Effects Discussion Topic: Do political campaigns affect behavior? Why did early research suggest that campaigns didn't matter much? Who is most likely to be affected by paid media? What consequences does this have for democratic processes? Read: Flanigan and Zingale, Chapter 7 "Political Communication" Ansolabehere, Behr, Iyengar (1993) The Media Game. Macmillan Chapters to be announced Week Nine: 11/24. US Congressional and State Elections/ Divided Government Discussion Topic: Are sub-national elections different? Do people respond to national or local issues when voting in sub-national races? Do state officials get blamed for the state's economy? For raising state taxes? Does behavior in sub-national races explain why the US has a history of divided government? Read: Neimi and Weisberg, Section IV. Congressional & State Elections This includes articles by; Campbell Jacobson Jacobson and Kernell (1983) Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 (pp. 5-34). From, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections. Yale Univ. Press. Kramer (1971) "Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. House Voting." APSR 65:131-142. Stein (1990) "Economic Voting for Governor and U.S. Senator?" JOP. 52:29-53. Kone and Winters (1993) "Taxes and Voting: Electoral Retribution in the American States." JOP. 55:22-40. Fiorina (1992). "Do Voters Choose Divided Government?" Chapter 5 in Divided Government. Macmillan. x Week Ten: 12/1. To be Announced. Finals Week; 12/ 8. A Retrospective on Recent Elections (and a look forward.) Read: Ladd (1993) "The 1992 Vote for President Clinton: Another Brittle Mandate?" Pol Sci Q. 108:1-28. Student Presentations: Eastern Europe Canada 1993 US 1992, 1994 midterm Notes on journal abbreviations: APSR: American Political Science Review AJPS: American Journal of Political Science BJPS: British Journal of Political Science JOP: Journal of Politics