I = PCT

environmental impact= population * consumption per person * impact per unit of consumption
 
 

FERTILIZER USE
 
Region Annual % change 

1961-1988

 Relative contrib
Fertilizer P C T P% C% T%
Developing 11 2.3 0.9 7.5 21.3 9.3 69.4
Developed 4.3 0.9 0.7 2.6 21.4 16.7 61.9

P = population increase

C = agricultural production per person

T = units of fertilizer used per unit of agric. production
 

OECD COUNTRIES: SO2 EMISSIONS
 
Annual % change 1970-1988
SO2 Emissions P C Te Tp
-2.6 0.8 2.4 -1.7 -4.0

Te = change in SO2 due to efficient use of SO2-producing energy sources (more electricity per ton of coal)

Tp = change in SO2 due to pollution control technology

Relative contributions:
Upward Downward
P% C% Te% Tp%
+25 +75 -30 -70

 
 

STAGES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION:

1) HIGH BIRTH RATES BALANCED BY HIGH DEATH RATES.

2) DEATH RATE FALLS (USUALLY DUE TO FOOD PRODUCTION AND ADVANCES IN MEDICINE AND HYGIENE)

3) BIRTH RATE REMAINS HIGH AND POPULATION INCREASES RAPIDLY.

4) BIRTH RATES FALL, LEADING SLOWER RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH.

NOW-DEVELOPED (European) COUNTRIES
 
YEAR DEATH RATE BIRTH RATE
1800 33/1000 40/1000
1900 24/1000 31/1000
1950 16/1000 23/1000
1985 9/1000 14/1000

 

1985 NET GROWTH RATE = 0.4% PER YEAR

FERTILITY: 1.5 - 2.1 CHILDREN/ WOMAN
 
 

Fertility: Births per couple or woman

Replacement-level fertility: 2 children per woman
 
 

THE ULTIMATE SIZE OF A POPULATION DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY REPLACEMENT LEVEL IS REACHED IN STAGE 4 OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
 
 

"POPULATION MOMENTUM":

LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE MOVING INTO BEARING CHILDREN AGE...

leading to...

LARGE NUMBER OF TOTAL BIRTHS...

despite decline in fertility

AREA OR COUNTRY CHILDREN / WOMAN
 
 

ASIA W/O CHINA 4.0

CHINA 2.0

ASIAN ISLAMIC 7.0

S. KOREA 1.6

INDIA 4.0 (was 6.0 IN 1970)

LATIN AMER. RAPID DECLINE TO BELOW 4.0

ARGENTINA, CHILE, URAGUAY 2.5-2.9

ISLAMIC AFRICA 3.4-4.2

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 6.5

EUROPE 1.5

UNITED STATES 2.1 (1.74 IN 1976)

REASONS WHY THE THIRD WORLD DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN EUROPE'S WAS:

• UNPRECEDENTED NUMBERS

• POPULATION IS OUTPACING TECHNOLOGY AND

AGRICULTURE

• NO FRONTIER WHERE PEOPLE MAY IMMIGRATE

• MODERN FAMILY PLANNING TECHNOLOGIES

• POPULATION-RESOURCE BALANCE DIFFERENT

WAYS TO REDUCE POPULATION GROWTH:

REDRESS INEQUALITY OF RESOURCES AND WEALTH POVERTY CAUSES THE POPULATION CRISIS

-IF THE STANDARD OF LIVING, WHICH INITIATES THE RISE IN POPULATION, CONTINUES TO INCREASE, THE POPULATION WILL EVENTUALLY LEVEL OFF. RAPID POPULATION INCREASE CONTINUES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BECAUSE THIS BASIC CONDITION HAS NOT BEEN MET. THE WEALTH FROM THESE FORMER COLONIAL COUNTRIES WAS DIVERTED TO THE ADVANCED NATIONS. THE POLICY IMPLICATION REDISTRIBUTION OF INCOME.

UNMET NEED
 
COUNTRY  PREVALENCE (% USING FAM. PLAN. SERV.) UNMET NEED
HAITI 10 27
MEXICO 57 24
NIGERIA 6 21
EGYPT 38 25
INDIA 43 18
PAKISTAN 12 28
DEVELOPING WORLD (EXC. CHINA) 17

MEETING THIS 17% COULD REDUCE THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE FOR THE ENTIRE DEVELOPING WORLD FROM 3.90 TO 3.11, WELL BELOW THE UN TARGET OF 3.34.

PROVIDE QUALITY FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES

• PUT PEOPLE'S PERCEPTIONS AND NEEDS FIRST

• PROVIDE CHOICE OF CONTRACEPTIVE METHODS, INFORMATION, TECHNICAL COMPETENCE, INTERPERSONAL RELATIONS

• ENCOURAGING CONTINUITY

• HELP WITH PREVENTING DELAYING AND SPACING BIRTHS

ENHANCE CHILD SURVIVAL

•14 MILLION INFANTS AND CHILDREN UNDER AGE 5 DIE EACH YEAR

• UNCERTAINTY AMONG PARENTS ABOUT THE SURVIVAL OF CHILDREN ENCOURAGES HIGH FERTILITY

INVOLVE MEN IN THE FERTILITY TRANSITION

• IN MANY AREAS OF THE WORLD MEN ACCOUNT FOR "EXCESS" FERTILITY

• HIGH RATES OF ABANDONMENT OF CHILDREN CONCEIVED PREMARITALLY

• BURDENS OF FERTILITY CONTROL HAVE FALLEN DISPROPORTIONATELY ON WOMEN

• WHEN MEN WERE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THEIR CHILDREN, FERTILITY FELL; POLICIES MUST GIVE CHILDREN A CLAIM ON THE FATHER'S RESOURCES

• EUROPE PASSED ITS DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION BEFORE MODERN CONTRACEPTIVES

EXPAND SOCIAL CHOICES AND EDUCATION OF GIRLS & WOMEN: •WOMEN WITH 7 YRS OF SCHOOL >> ON AVERAGE 3 CHILDREN LESS: -DELAYED MARRIAGE

-EFFECTIVE FERTILITY REGULATION

-INVESTMENT IN CHILDREN

 •CHILDREN OF WOMEN WITH EVEN A FEW YEARS OF EDUCATION ARE LESS LIKEY TO DIE

•CONTROL OF EARNINGS:

-SELF-ESTEEM INDEPENDENT OF MOTHERHOOD

-NEGOTIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY WITH PARTNERS OVER SEXUALITY AND FERTILITY.

-RELY MORE ON THEMSELVES FOR SECURITY

-DESIRE FEWER CHILDREN, AND INVEST IN THOSE THEY DO HAVE