Comparison and Summary of Demographic Statistics

POINTS TO KEEP IN MIND FOR THIS ARTICLE:

1. Values and Economic signals are not the same thing. One is goals, dreams, hopes... the other is focused on the bottom line, basically how much does it cost and how many resources are available how many are required?

2. People claim to make choices based on values but many times we really make decisions based on cost calculations.

3. In Japan we seem to have a situation where people change their behavior based on economic signals, then after a period of time adjust their values to reflect their changed behavior.

4. Does this mean that basic Japanese principles like Confucianism are dying in Japan or merely evolving?

Retherford, Robert , Naohiro Ogawa, and Satomi Sakamoto. 1996. "Values and Fertility Change in Japan." POPULATION STUDIES Amy SWENSON, Western Washington University, "CHINA: Health and Environmental Conditions Surrounding the Yangtze River and Its People" Vol. 50, No. 1, pp. 5-25.

Thesis: Value Change and Economic Change & Social Change have jointly effected fertility in Japan since 1950

Three Demographic Periods focusing on population change in Modern Japan

(1) 50 - 57 -- Rapid decline in Fertility results in reaching Replacement Level

(2) 57- 73 -- Little Fertility change -- steady state at replacement level

(3) 73 - 93 -- Resumed decline to below replacement -- fertility rate 1.46 in 1993

 

Figure 1: Demographic Periods in Japan

• Note difference between Ideal and Actual Family Size

 

Theory and Hypothesis

1. The fundamental force of fertility change based on change in Social and Economic Development, Not Value Changes

Results:

• Mortality Change
• Decreased economic value of kids
• New Goods and Services compete with kids for parent's resources
  • includes education and employment for women outside the house

2. Secondary Forces effecting change

a. Value Changes -- also tend to be driven by development

b. However, value changes also have a "life" of their own -- they exercise an independent influence

• Can retard fertility decline if local religion favors high growth
• Can enhance fertility decline if outside agencies push the value of smaller families

3. Socially integrated societies tend to experience more rapid, widespread declines since they tend to be more homogeneous, easier for ideas and value changes to spread

4. Empirical data has tended to show that declines in ideal family size usually follow rather then preceding fertility drops. Thus first population declines, then people say they want smaller families. (Value follows Economic adjustment)

• is this surprising???

5. Decline in family size actual and ideal continue until the utility and cost of kids more closely reflects the current economic realities

• as kids become more expensive and less able to create economic value, have fewer
• changing utility of kids effects numbers wanted

 

Don't worry about Figure 2 below, it's a bit over your heads and not critical to the argument

 

 

 

 

Figure 3 -- Number of Children ever born -- note the convergence except for 25--29 year olds.

 

6. The exact timing of declines of fertility seem to be effected in complex ways by culture, historical time period, and host of other factors

• There is no unique combination of factors that guarantees particular decline in population at a particular time

7. The rise of individualism and decline of family based values also have an effect

• However again a lag is found, where behavior precedes actual value changes
• This means that children decrease their caring for elderly parents prior to a change in values of filial piety
• Does this mean that Confucian values are being lost?

 

8. Greater participation by women in the workforce also has an important effect

• Marriage age increases (Economic change)
• Love matches increase (Value change)

 

 

 

 

 

 

9. Value changes are not smooth and continuous, but occur occasionally and quite rapidly

• dam bursting scenario, pent-up desires for change suddenly spill-over
• Japan has especially experienced this type of change -- consider the Meiji Restoration or Post WWII Japan
• Further, Japan has taken longer to make the value changes visa via economic changes
  • is this due to the rapid speed of economic growth?
  • or the more conservative and isolated nature of Japan (Japan as different)?

Table 1: Note the change in women's attitudes.

• Value change -- happiness no longer equated with marriage
• Economic factor not changing -- psychic and economic security
• No Value change -- marriage natural thing
• Value change -- women can be on their own
• No Change -- women better off alone

Leaves us confused, but it is clear that values are evolving and some economic factors have not changed

Table 2: Clear indication that there has been a generational shift in values concerning marriage and pre-marital sex

Figure 6: Economic lead change -- longer spacing between marriage and kids

Figure 7: Value Change -- smaller family size desired, but still higher then reality.

My conclusions and thoughts:

1. Despite its Confucian, Asian Heritage Japan is changing, evolving.

2. Generally economic based changes lead value changes.

3. Might we expect the same in China -- might this suggest that the "One Child Policy" is no longer necessary and perhaps counter-productive (is it like the 55mph speed limit instead of markets driving-up gasoline prices)?

4.  Might this also suggest that it's the economy not Western values per se that is most challenging to Confucianism?