EGgeo 412

Regional Environmental and Economic Modeling

Spring 2007

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Patrick Buckley

AH 222 patrick@cc.wwu.edu

ph. 650-4773

OFFICE HOURS

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Openning Thought:  Have you ever wondered how to grasp and plan for the fact that water in Colorado River has been allocated to a proportion in excess of 100% flow in a good year.  Or even better what should Chinese cites and counties in the Yellow River Basin do to prepare for the future when the river already is dry (as in no water flowing) for about 100 days per year.  Wishful thinking, politcal rallies, and environmental education might raise consciouness in regards to these issues, but they are not solutions and really don't address the true political and social costs of different decisions.  Expert models and optimization models on the other hand are ways of understanding and suggesting potential solutions to problems of this nature.  Although this course will not solve any of thess thorny problems, it will introduce you to methodologies that need to be used in creating solutions.

Goal: To expose students to a number of widely used models for investigating the impacts of environmental and economic change.

Learning Outcomes:  Students will be familiar with and able to apply and solve the following modeling types

• Delphi Modelling -- for problem solving, scenario generation, exploration of the future, and data collection
• Ordinal Ranking -- for evaluating Quality of Life in a region
• Linear Programming -- optimization modeling for efficient use of limited resources
  • graphical solution method for simple two variable models
  • simplex solution method for more complex three variable models
  • electronic solution methods for the above
• Input-Output Modeling -- used in a combination of economic and environmental models for impact analysis
  • mathematical solution by hand on a simple one region three sector model
  • electronic solution on more complex models
• (if time permits) shift/share, location quotion, & dissimilarity index models

Readings: Will be selected from a number of texts and made available over the internet or through the Wilson Library and/or Huxley Reserve Room.  See readings web page each week.

Course format:

Four basic modeling types will be dealt with:

• Environmental and Quality of Life Expert Systems (Delphi Model and Qualitative/Quantitative Mixed Models or Ordinal Ranking)
• Environmental and Economic Impact analysis also called Optimization Modeling (linear programming and input-output analysis)
• Classical Development and Economic Base Models (location quotient, shift share)
• Segregation models (dissimilarity indexes)

Course Organization

• Based on assigned exercises students will build and utilize one or more models under each of the above categories. These exercises will require work by the students in the community, in the library, on the web, and in the computer labs.
• The class will be organized like a consulting office, with students in some instances assigned to a team to collect, analyze, and present the results of an assigned study and at other times working independently on the same assignment.
• In addition to exercises there will be a midterm and final based on the modeling methodologies.
• All assignments will have fixed due dates, and rapidly lose credit if they arrive late.  After one week they will no longer be excepted.
• Questions are welcome in class. Class participation is essential.
• To gauge understanding of principles presented in class very short pop quizzes will occur during the quarter.
• The final and mid-term will include both a written and oral part

Shedule:

DRAFT -- subject to change as the quarter progresses

Note that this is a draft of the schedule and could vary depending on the speed with which students grasp the materials presented.  For example more time might be spent on learning the Linear Programming techniques if this is necessary for students to fully grasp the concepts.

 Grading:

Grading is broken into three parts:

• 40 pts -- Exercises
• 10 pts -- Student generated Delphi model
• 10 pts -- Group & Class Participation and Pop Quizzes
• 40 pts -- Mid Term & Final

Letter Grades

• A 94 points and above
• A- 90
• B+ 86
• B 82
• B- 78
• C+ 74
• C 70
• C 66
• D+ 62
• D 58
• D- 54